What to expect from the battles for Lysychansk and Severodonetsk?
Analysis of the positions of the Armed Forces in Donbass and the operational situation in the theater of operations make it possible to predict further scenarios for the development of the situation at the front.
A new wave of full-scale assault in Luhansk region: Russian troops have accumulated a large number of reserves and are shelling all settlements controlled by the Armed Forces of the region. According to Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk region's military administration, fighting in Severodonetsk is already under way in the industrial zone, with Ukrainian troops controlling only the territory of the Azot plant. Lysychansk - under total fire.
Let me remind you that the Severodonetsk industrial zone, according to various estimates, is from 40 to 50% of the city. However, given the intensity of the fighting, even in the territory of the "promka" it may be that we control about a third of the city. So don't panic.
In addition, the statements of S. Gaidai contradict the statements of R. Vlasenko, the head of the military-civil administration of Severodonetsk. According to the latter, the Russian occupiers are shelling not only the industrial zone, but also residential areas near it. That is, the fighting is going on there, and this indicates the expansion of the area controlled by the Armed Forces.
As for the date of the "capture" of Severodonetsk announced by the Russians, it has changed many times. They are currently announcing June 26. I don't think we can really talk about any terms here. During his speech at the so-called International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, Putin announced a change in the tactics of the occupying forces. He noted that they will not go to the positions of the Armed Forces (as was the case in Popasna and Rubizhne), but will bypass them, surround them.
Indeed, the Russians are pushing through Ukraine's defenses using scorched earth tactics. In fact, they are demolishing fortifications and buildings under "zero" in order to break the resistance of the Armed Forces and seize new territories. And this happens without a specific reference to a particular date.
Today we are watching the tactics of flanking coverage of the positions of Ukraine's defenders. This, for example, was demonstrated during the capture of the village of Metolkine near Severodonetsk. Currently, such a scenario is being fought for the nearest village of Sirotyne.
The occupiers are trying to cut off the Armed Forces from the Seversky Donets, from the supply line. However, opportunities for logistics still remain. At the same time, the enemy does not stop trying to bypass the groups of our troops, creating an operational environment, trying to block the Ukrainian defenders near Borivsky and Voronov.
To push our defenses, the enemy uses a numerical advantage in the means of destruction. First of all, we are talking about volley fire systems and barrel artillery with a caliber of more than 122 mm. So, redeployment in the area of Severodonetsk of the Russian SAU "Malka" of caliber of 203 mm is fixed. This is a new development of the Russian military-industrial complex, currently they have only 60 units in service.
Relocation of heavy flamethrower systems (TOC) 1A "Soncepek" was also recorded. This is a thermobaric weapon prohibited by international conventions. But, as I understand it, the Russians are not deterred.
In addition, the invaders brought new air defense systems S-300V4 to the Luhansk region. This is due to the successful strikes of the Armed Forces on the enemy's rear bases in the area of Krasny Luch (Khrustalny) and Popasna.
There is also a high intensity of fighting in the Toshkivka area. In addition, the enemy is trying to gain a foothold in Ustynivka, Pidlisne and Myrna Dolyna, intense fighting continues in the area of the settlement of Bila Hora, a difficult situation in the area of Hirsky.
The enemy is trying to create an operational environment for the Ukrainian group, concentrated in the Golden Mountain area.
The main question: what can we answer? Troops are being redeployed, and new weapons are arriving at the front, including the M777 howitzer and the Crab anti-aircraft gun. They were already used during the fighting in Toshkivka, which stopped the advance of the enemy. Currently, the same art is used in the Severodonetsk region, leveling the significant numerical advantage of the occupiers.
The arrival of new models of weapons could change the course of the military confrontation in eastern Ukraine. The first step was taken - the Russians' plans to encircle the Ukrainian group in the Severodonetsk and Lysychansk districts were thwarted. In addition, the Armed Forces continue to control the "road of life" Bakhmut - Lysychansk.
So we are waiting for new batches of weapons, we believe in the Armed Forces and keep the system!