Russia will attack Europe under the pretext of fighting global evil

Kostiantyn Golubtsov

Kostiantyn Golubtsov

Updated: May 01 2022 at 12:49 am
Source: DMITRY OSIPENKO

The tactical defeats of Russia in Ukraine, which completely crossed out the original plan of invasion and occupation, forced the Russian army to shift its focus: the main efforts are now aimed at the maximum seizure of the territories of the south and east of Ukraine, which Russia can hypothetically later unite with the L/DPR and try to pass it off as a victory to "save face". The Kremlin has also abandoned significant offensive operations in an attempt to secure a line of defense and move on to prolonged trench warfare.

The obvious failures of Russia at the front are a sensation for the whole world and a shock for Putin. The world community has realized that the notorious, deliberately replicated power of the Russian army is a myth. This means that Russia no longer has the status of a military superpower that cannot be attacked with conventional weapons. In turn, the Kremlin must look for reasons to justify itself to the Russians, who are already beginning to suspect that "not everything is going according to plan."

Russian propaganda dramatically changed its narratives: if on the eve of the invasion, the Russian audience was instilled with the idea of ​​an imminent inevitable defeat of Ukraine, then against the background of the obvious failures of the Russian army, the thesis was voiced that “Russia is at war with the second military power in Europe.” Now there is a further shift in emphasis: the thesis is being replicated that this is not a war with Ukraine at all, but with all the “world evil”, which Russia must selflessly resist in order to save good. This is an extreme manifestation of propaganda narratives aimed at a domestic audience and a direct indication that the Kremlin has chosen to continue the war at any cost.

Even against the backdrop of a defeat at the front, unthinkable for the image of Russia, the Kremlin will not agree to a truce or compromise, because this will be tantamount to defeat. But he cannot continue the war in its current form due to the futility and unacceptability of military losses. Therefore, the military strategy of the Russian Federation will give a further tilt to the need for a direct clash with Europe. The Russian audience is already being prepared for this by all possible methods of propaganda used in Russia. In addition, covert mobilization is planned, which is planned to be carried out everywhere. This is direct evidence that the Kremlin is planning to attack Europe, targeting the Baltic states or Poland.

The attack on Europe will be accompanied by a flurry of lies and insinuations in the media, under the pretext of the declared "protection of Russia and Russians." Putin can justify any aggression with unthinkable lies and double standards, classics of the Soviet school of propaganda. The US and Europe are already portrayed as universal "evil", a source of direct threat. Any exhortations from the West and calls for peace, the Kremlin will present as yet another confirmation of malice. This will be followed by a hybrid or full-scale military attack on the most vulnerable countries. Europe will have the bloodiest war on its territory since 1945.

Putin still cannot believe in his tactical defeat and is developing plans for further confrontation. Given his character and the worldview formed in the USSR, he will regard the West as the key culprit for the complex losses that Russia suffered in the first month of the war, including unprecedented human casualties at the front. Ukraine is viewed only as an intermediate stage in the restoration of the greatness of the Russian Empire of the 21st century, and the West as a key enemy and strategic adversary on the battlefield, helping Ukraine in every possible way to kill Russian soldiers. The Kremlin dictator believes that a relatively sparsely populated Russia, with limited ability to put "arms" of combat-ready men, is forced to stand alone against the whole world, who took up arms against her. It's a very dangerous situation because Europe is under real military threat. In this sense, Ukraine, at the cost of the lives of its citizens, protects the entire civilized world from Russian aggression.

The West is faced with a choice: take really effective steps towards Ukraine and provide the necessary weapons, or tomorrow get the war at home: on the peaceful and civilized streets of Berlin and Paris. If Putin nevertheless captures Ukraine at the cost of huge losses, then with the help of the forces and means of the Ukrainian army, united with the Russian one, he will move to the nearest European countries, which will turn out to be absolutely defenseless.

There is still a chance to avoid this catastrophe and help Ukraine with weapons in time. If the United States provided Ukraine with at least a quarter of the weapons that they simply left in Afghanistan in 2021, Ukrainian victory would be much closer, and the West could feel safe and confident in the future.

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